Financial independence
I’m 38, with €150,000 invested, and I put aside €1,500 a month. Once free, I’ll spend €3,000 a month, with 80% in stocks, and the money has to last until 95.
Every number in the sentence can be changed: drag it, use the arrow keys, or tap it to type a value.
Independence, median case
53
Between 49 and 59 in 8 cases out of 10.
The money lasts until 95
97 % of paths
What changes it most
- Save €200 more a month 7 months sooner
- Spend €200 less a month 9 months sooner
- Median wealth
- 8 cases out of 10
- Years of spending (median)
- Already free
- Run out of money
Hover over the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read each age.
A simulation, not investment advice.
Why a fan of paths
Two people with the same average return can end up one rich, the other broke: it all depends on the years the market falls. A crash just after you stop working weighs far more than one twenty years later. Hence a fan rather than a single number.
- 01
One start per year
Your plan is replayed starting in 1871, in 1872 and so on up to 2025, with the real returns of US markets, after inflation and 0.2% yearly fees. Once it reaches 2025, a path carries on from 1871.
- 02
Free at 25 times your spending
As soon as wealth reaches 25 years of spending, saving stops and withdrawals begin, adjusted for inflation.
- 03
What counts is what lasts
A path succeeds if it reaches independence and the money never runs out before the age you chose.
Questions
Where does the data come from?
From Robert Shiller’s public series (Yale): US stocks with dividends reinvested and 10-year Treasury bonds, adjusted for inflation, from 1871 to 2025. It is the longest market history available; a European portfolio would have lived through different years.
What about state pensions and taxes?
Not included in this version. A pension from 64 would reduce the withdrawals needed, so the result shown is cautious. Taxes on gains depend on the account you use.
Is the 4% rule safe?
It is a benchmark drawn from history, not a guarantee. The simulator shows exactly the starting years where it failed.
Are my numbers sent anywhere?
No. The 155 years of data are included in the page and the whole calculation runs in your browser.
Updated 2 November 2026